Investing Experiments

Lending Club 2015 Retrospective: My Monthly Returns and Lessons

Lending Club Monthly update 2015

This is a 2015 retrospective. LendingClub closed its retail Notes platform in December 2020, so you cannot replicate this exact experiment today. What you can do is study the real month-by-month numbers from a multi-year retail run and pull out the lessons that still apply to fixed-income alternatives in 2026, like Groundfloor, the U-Haul Investors Club, and Yieldstreet.

Key takeaways

  • Blended yield landed around 13 percent gross, before charge-offs and fees.
  • Charge-offs were lumpy. Months of zero, then a $24 to $35 hit out of nowhere.
  • Cash drag was the single biggest performance killer. Idle money earns nothing.
  • Automation became necessary as institutional money scraped the best notes in seconds.
  • The platform itself disappeared for retail in 2020. Platform risk is real, even for billion-dollar companies.

April 2015 update

At the end of April 2015 the account sat at about $23,097.59 with a blended interest rate of around 13.1 percent. I had just deposited a chunk and roughly $10,062 was waiting to be invested. Even with automated filters, finding notes that met my criteria was getting noticeably harder. The bots had won.

Lending Club account snapshot April 2015

May 2015 update

May closed up $109.54 in profit. I started including the LendingClub end-of-month statement, which broke out interest earned, charge-offs, and secondary-market (Folio) gains. I had also tightened my note-selection filters and raised my Folio markup, which dropped resale activity from 30 to 60 notes a month to 10 to 20. That kept more cash invested and earning interest.

Lending Club May 2015 statement

Lending Club May 2015 account totals

July 2015 update

July booked $170.13 in profit. About $7,500 was still parked in idle cash, and late notes were starting to creep up: two in grace, two between 16 and 30 days late, and six between 31 and 120 days late. One borrower had told the platform they had filed for bankruptcy, so at least one charge-off was effectively locked in.

Lending Club July 2015 update screenshot

September 2015: the full table

I started keeping a spreadsheet because screenshots stopped telling the whole story. Below is the running month-by-month from April 2013 through September 2015.

DateDepositTotal DepositedAccount Value StartAccount Value EndInvested in LoansMonthly ProfitTotal ProfitCharge-offs
4/1/2013$0.00$0.00$0.00$0.00$0.00$0.00$0.00$0.00
5/1/2013$2,000.00$2,000.00$2,000.00$2,000.00$0.00$0.00$0.00$0.00
6/1/2013$0$2,000.00$2,000.00$2,015.62$2,000.00$15.62$15.62$0.00
7/1/2013$0$2,000.00$2,015.62$2,032.33$1,961.01$16.71$32.33$0.00
8/1/2013$0$2,000.00$2,032.33$2,049.11$1,966.14$16.78$49.11$0.00
9/1/2013$250.00$2,250.00$2,049.11$2,306.16$1,970.42$7.05$56.16$0.00
10/1/2013$0$2,250.00$2,306.16$2,318.35$1,588.11$12.19$68.35$0.00
11/1/2013$0$2,250.00$2,318.35$2,334.91$2,160.73$16.56$84.91$0.00
12/1/2013$0$2,250.00$2,334.91$2,334.91$2,319.93$0.00$84.91($23.91)
1/1/2014$1,000.00$3,250.00$2,334.91$3,356.78$2,314.54$21.87$106.78$0.00
2/1/2014$0$3,250.00$3,356.78$3,383.63$3,215.11$26.85$133.63$0.00
3/1/2014$0$3,250.00$3,383.63$3,414.99$3,298.91$31.36$164.99$0.00
4/1/2014$0$3,250.00$3,414.99$3,444.77$3,270.66$29.78$194.77$0.00
5/1/2014$0$3,250.00$3,444.77$3,476.49$3,219.24$31.72$226.49$0.00
6/1/2014$0$3,250.00$3,476.49$3,509.18$3,396.53$32.69$259.18$0.00
7/1/2014$0$3,250.00$3,509.18$3,542.62$3,430.71$33.44$292.62$0.00
8/1/2014$0$3,250.00$3,542.62$3,575.42$3,485.82$32.80$325.42$0.00
9/1/2014$1,000.00$4,250.00$3,575.42$4,626.40$3,487.59$50.98$376.40$0.00
10/1/2014$0$4,250.00$4,626.40$4,682.38$3,793.43$55.98$432.38$0.00
11/1/2014$0$4,250.00$4,682.38$4,740.78$4,487.93$58.40$490.78$0.00
12/2/2014$5,000.00$9,250.00$4,740.78$9,793.23$3,968.26$52.45$543.23$0.00
1/1/2015$0$9,250.00$9,793.23$9,880.07$6,907.64$86.84$630.07$0.00
2/1/2015$0$9,250.00$9,880.07$9,975.71$9,468.70$95.64$725.71($4.22)
3/1/2015$3,000.00$12,250.00$9,975.71$13,054.65$9,495.49$78.94$804.65($34.37)
4/2/2015$10,000.00$22,250.00$13,054.65$23,146.55$9,019.11$91.90$896.55($13.41)
5/1/2015$0.00$22,250.00$23,146.55$23,256.09$12,447.84$109.54$1,006.09($24.58)
6/1/2015$0.00$22,250.00$23,256.09$23,407.01$17,567.06$150.92$1,157.01$0.00
7/1/2015$3,000.00$25,250.00$26,407.01$26,577.14$18,780.13$170.13$1,327.14$0.00
8/1/2015$0.00$25,250.00$26,577.14$26,701.84$18,904.83$124.70$1,451.84($24.44)
9/1/2015$0.00$25,250.00$26,701.84$26,891.41$20,510.82$189.57$1,641.41$0.00

Lending Club update through September 2015

What the numbers say

Total deposited: $25,250. Account value at the September 2015 cutoff: $26,891.41. Cumulative profit: $1,641.41. That is roughly 6.5 percent on total deposits over two years and four months, or about 3 percent annualized on a dollar-weighted basis. Far below the 13 percent nominal yield, mostly because so much capital sat in cash waiting for good notes.

Cash drag is the silent killer. A 13 percent yield on half your money is a 6.5 percent yield on all your money. Idle cash made losses bigger than charge-offs ever did.

Lessons that still apply in 2026

  • Track everything in a spreadsheet, not just screenshots. The pattern only shows up over months.
  • Idle cash is the enemy. If a platform takes weeks to deploy money, your real yield is much lower than the headline rate.
  • Charge-offs are lumpy. Many quiet months, then a hit. Diversify across as many notes or deals as the platform allows.
  • Automation tilts the field. If institutional bots can move faster than you, your selection edge disappears.
  • Platforms die. LendingClub for retail is gone. Build that scenario into your plan from day one.

What is available in 2026 instead

For investors looking for the same kind of self-directed, fixed-income alternative in 2026, the most direct successors are:

  • U-Haul Investors Club for asset-backed notes at 4 to 9 percent.
  • Groundfloor for short-term real-estate-backed loans starting at $10.
  • Yieldstreet for accredited investors wanting broader alternative-debt exposure.
  • Treasuries and brokered CDs at 4 to 5 percent. Boring, but the risk-free comparison every alternative has to beat.

FAQ

Can I still invest in LendingClub Notes today?

No. LendingClub closed its retail Notes platform on December 27, 2020. They now operate as a digital bank.

What was your actual annualized return?

Dollar-weighted, about 3 percent annualized through September 2015. Nominal note yields were near 13 percent, but cash drag and charge-offs took a big bite.

Why was so much money sitting in cash?

Institutional investors scraped the best notes within seconds of listing. Even with automation, my filters were strict enough that fills came slowly.

What is the closest 2026 equivalent?

For tiny minimums and a self-directed feel, Groundfloor is closest. For asset-backed notes that resemble the LendingClub experience without the consumer-credit risk, the U-Haul Investors Club fits.

Is unsecured P2P consumer lending ever coming back for retail?

Probably not in the original LendingClub format. The economics favor institutional buyers and regulatory cost favors larger investors. Expect retail to stay in asset-backed or fund-of-loans wrappers.

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